Elections upset Pakistan’s traditional balance of power – how will the Army respond?

Among Pakistanis, the Army has long enjoyed a reputation for being the country’s most trusted institution, not only the defender against foreign enemies, but also the guardian of Pakistan’s domestic stability. The Army has – for better or worse – long regulated Pakistan’s internal politics, its foreign policy and even large parts of its economy. While this hidden hand has often led commentators to doubt the authenticity of Pakistan’s democracy, the majority of Pakistanis have been supportive when the Army has intervened in the background – and sometimes in the foreground – when the machinations of the political parties became too egregious or their corruption too blatant, and a corrective hand was needed in the running of the country.

Pakistan’s two traditional political parties, the Pakistan Muslim League – Nawaz (PML-N) and the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), associated with the Sharif and Bhutto political dynasties respectively, have in the past overcome periods of direct confrontation with the Army to find a modus vivendi with the generals. This has meant the informal outsourcing of foreign and national security policymaking to the Army in return for the Army’s quiescence during their time in office.

Only in recent years was this political duopoly broken, by former cricketer Imran Khan’s Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party. Promising an end to corruption and to build a welfare state on broadly Islamic principles, Imran’s premiership (2018 – 2022) initially enjoyed military support but relations deteriorated when he insisted on a greater say in foreign and national security policy, the Army’s jealously guarded preserve.

Imran’s premiership ended in his ouster following a parliamentary noconfidence vote amid a catastrophic balance of payments crisis. Since then, the PTI has suffered defections and a de facto ban imposed by the Supreme Court. Imran himself is currently imprisoned on dubious charges of leaking national security information during his time in office.

However, Imran appears to have tapped into a strong national antiestablishment mood, especially among young and tech-savvy Pakistanis hungry for real change. The unexpected results of the 8th February general election have thrown the country into turmoil. Independent candidates aligned with Imran won the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly (legislature) with 93 out of 336, some way short of the 169 needed for a majority, but ahead of both the PML-N with 75 seats and the PPP with 54 seats.

However, on 13th February it was announced that the leaders of the PML-N and the PPP, backed by the Army and supported by a constellation of minor parties, had agreed to form a coalition which would see former PML-N Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif (April 2022 to August 2023) assume the office again, taking over from caretaker PM Anwar-ul-Haq Kakar.

For millions of Pakistanis, particularly young voters, this seems like a stitchup by the Army and the traditional parties, a blatant attempt to maintain the status quo to the detriment of Imran, the self-proclaimed reformist outsider. There is palpable anger among millions of voters who believe the democratic outcome of the election has been usurped.

Badly stung by inflation running up to 40 per cent in the months after Imran’s departure, many Pakistanis simply have no recollection of challenges during Imran’s rule, notably spiralling food prices and huge gaps in performance of his nominated government in Punjab-the populous province, home to just below 60 per cent of Pakistan’s population.

In the days following the electoral results, there have been reports of unrest in parts of Pakistan, amid questions over popular support for the army and its role in Pakistani political life.

At a time of acute tensions stretching from Ukraine, the Middle East to AsiaPacific, Pakistan’s location at the intersection of those regions means the outcome of the country’s current power plays matters not only to the domestic electorate but to a wider international audience. For Pakistan’s foreign partners, notably China and the US, the country’s army holds the key to meeting its commitments, notably related to its security affairs.

But after the elections, General Asim Munir, Pakistan’s most senior soldier, his senior generals and the secretive Inter-Services Intelligence (IS) spy agency – which has often been the Army’s covert actor in domestic politics - now face some fundamental choices as they seek to restore stability following the upheaval of the election result.

The military wants the PML-N and PPP to move swiftly towards a long-term power-sharing agreement, ensuring the continuation of the economic program that was initiated under the previous Shahbaz-led government and the caretaker government that followed. However, in backing the coalition, the Army misread the public mood and also abandoned its long tradition of subtle behind-the-scenes manipulation and deal-making. The question now is whether the Army will double down on its support for the coalition or will it eventually seek an accommodation with Imran and his followers in the hope of restoring popular confidence in the military as the ultimate arbiter of domestic political life. Whatever path it chooses it will have to do so quickly. Pakistan’s economy remains exceedingly fragile and is unlikely to find remedy in an unstable coalition of such antithetical bedfellows like the PML-N and the PPP. Already there are signs that the PPP will make a series of demands on economic matters that may jeopardise recent attempts to deal with economic and financial turmoil. Moreover, the PML-N itself may opt for extravagant infrastructure projects to win popular appeal at the cost of further draining down already stressed public finances.

Other problems such as a recurrence of domestic terrorism by both Islamist and Baloch nationalist groups loom large. Ultimately, the generals may decide that seeking a rapprochement with Imran might yield its preferred outcomes more than an inherently unstable coalition that has a high risk of dysfunction and collapse. The next few weeks and months will tell whether the generals have the subtlety and political nous to choose the right path for Pakistan.